Sources for “What’s the worst that can happen?”

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Reference in text Source – name Source – details Source – link Retrieved on
downturn in oil feeds into the rest of the economy Energy Downturn Spreads Beyond the Oil Patch The Wall Street Journal – Nov 2015 http://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-downturn-spreads-beyond-the-oil-patch-1448325898?mod=e2tw 12/10/2015
quarter of a million job losses Worldwide oil job losses climb to 233,000, recruiter says Fuel Fix – Nov 2015 http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/11/17/worldwide-oil-job-losses-climb-to-233000-recruiter-says/#36515101=0 12/10/2015
British firms subject to takeover by foreign companies US buyers eyeing struggling North Sea oil and gas firms EnergyVoice – Dec 2015 https://www.energyvoice.com/marketinfo/96026/us-buyers-eyeing-struggling-north-sea-oil-and-gas-firms/ 12/23/2015
amount of tax paid Economic Contributor Oil and Gas UK – undated http://oilandgasuk.co.uk/knowledgecentre/economic-contribution.cfm 12/3/2015
Public sector deficit, national debt Public Sector Finances, April 2015 ONS – Apr 2015 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-362670 12/4/2015
oil and gas trade deficit benefits and £14 billion plus annual investment UK oil and gas industrial strategy: business and government action plan gov.uk – Mar 2013 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-oil-and-gas-industrial-strategy-business-and-government-action-plan 12/21/2015
UK’s balance of payments deficit is £72.4 billion United Kingdom Balance of Payments – The Pink Book, 2014 Office of National Statistics (ONS) – Oct 2015 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html 12/4/2015
North sea production has been in decline for some time DUKES Chapter 3: Petroleum gov.uk – Jul 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447630/DUKES_2015_Chapter_3.pdf 12/4/2015
UK oil production decline Oil Statistics gov.uk – Jul 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/oil-statistics 11/26/2015
15-16.5 billion barrels under the North Sea, Call for the drop in oil prices to be passed on Danny Alexander’s speech at the EI Aberdeen, Highlands and Islands branch annual dinner Energy Institute – Nov 2014 https://www.energyinst.org/documents/3255 12/21/2015
Calls for tax breaks for oil and gas Video: Craig Group boss says Budget must support investment in North Sea drilling Energy Voice – Jul 2015 https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/81572/video-craig-group-boss-says-budget-must-support-investment-in-north-sea-drilling/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily%20newsletter%20new 12/21/2015
The chancellor acts to support the North Sea oil and gas industry Proposals for further fiscal and economic devolution to Scotland (at time 12:34:20) Treasury Select Committee – Jan 2015 http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=17038&player=silverlight 12/21/2015
Tax breaks for oil and gas Budget 2015: tax breaks for North Sea oil industry The Telegraph – Mar 2015 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11480374/Budget-2015-tax-breaks-for-North-Sea-oil-industry.html 12/21/2015
Disappointing budget for oil and gas North Sea oil drillers get soundbites not tax cuts in Budget The Telegraph – Jul 2015 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11726706/North-Sea-oil-drillers-get-soundbites-not-tax-cuts-in-Budget.html 12/21/2015
50% of EUR takes place in the first three years Annual Energy Outlook 2014 EIA – Apr 2014 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/AEO/pdf/0383%282014%29.pdf 12/21/2015
Contango and backwardation Contango Vs. Normal Backwardation Investopedia – Mar 2007 http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp 12/17/2015
Oil in storage EIA Short-term energy outlook – Global Petroleum and Other Liquids EIA – monthly report https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm 12/17/2015
Oil in storage IEA Monthly oil data service (MODS) IEA – commercial reports https://www.iea.org/statistics/mods/ 12/7/2015
Left and right agree that oil was put in storage The US has so much oil that it’s running out of storage Business Insider – Mar 2015 http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-us-has-so-much-crude-that-it-is-running-out-of-places-to-put-it-2015-3?r=US 12/21/2015
Left and right agree that oil was put in storage Another Big Reason to Think Oil Prices Aren’t Going Up Soon Bloomberg – Feb 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/another-big-reason-to-think-oil-prices-aren-t-going-up-soon 12/21/2015
oil stocks would stretch from Edinburgh to London #Oil stocks have swollen to 3bn barrels: put that into one supertanker after another, and the lines stretches 530km @JavierBlas2 via Twitter – Nov 2015 https://twitter.com/JavierBlas2/status/667235409601130497/photo/1 12/10/2015
Shutting wells can result in the loss of leases Collapsing Oil Prices Are Forcing Small US Producers To Shut Down Wells Bloomberg – Jan 2015 http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-us-oil-well-shut-ins-start-as-crude-rout-batters-small-producers-2015-1?r=US 12/21/2015
BP to reduce investments BP Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Results BP [Press Release] – Feb 2015 http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/press/press-releases/fourth-quarter-2014-results.html 12/21/2015
Chevron to reduce investments Chevron Announces $35.0 Billion Capital and Exploratory Budget for 2015 Chevron [Press Release] – Jan 2015 http://investor.chevron.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=130102&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2012160 12/21/2015
Shell to reduce investments Shell full year 2014 update: Balancing growth and returns Shell [Press Release] – Jan 2015 http://www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/media/news-and-media-releases/2015/shell-full-year-2014-update-balancing-growth-and-returns.html 12/21/2015
cuts in investment totaled $200 billion Saudi Vice Oil Minister Sees Price Surge After Cutbacks BloombergBusiness – Nov 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-09/oil-investment-cuts-at-200-billion-as-saudi-prince-sees-rally 12/10/2015
low oil prices lead to high oil prices Oil Prices Have Hit a 10-Year Low. They’re Not Going to Stay There. foreign policy – Jan 2016 http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/06/oil-prices-have-hit-a-10-year-low-theyre-not-going-to-stay-there/?utm_content=buffer12731&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer 2/2/2016
reduced rig count Global Rig Count Continues Steady Decline OilPrice – Nov 2015 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Global-Rig-Count-Continues-Steady-Decline.html 12/7/2015
cannibalisation of rigs Oilfield cannibals: to save cash, U.S. drillers strip idle rigs Reuters – Oct 2015 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/07/oil-services-parts-idUSL1N1262UL20151007 12/7/2015
US oil imports and its changes U.S. Imports by Country of Origin EIA – database http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm 12/21/2015
1979 oil shock Oil Shock of 1978–79 Federal Reserve Bank of America – Nov 2013 http://www.federalreservehistory.org/Events/DetailView/40 12/21/2015
UK interest rates in the ‘eighties’ Statistical Interactive Database – official Bank Rate history Bank of England – database http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/iadb/Repo.asp 12/21/2015
Russia as largest European producer and one of top three global producers BP World Energy Outlook BP – 2015 http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html 12/21/2015
Russian interest rates Russian banks are set to lose 1 trillion rubles in 2015 Business Insider – Feb 2015 http://uk.businessinsider.com/high-interest-rates-push-russian-banks-to-1-trillion-ruble-loss-2015-2 12/21/2015
UK petrol and diesel prices Weekly road fuel prices gov.uk – published weekly https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/oil-and-petroleum-products-weekly-statistics 14/2/2016
WTI prices, US diesel prices, US gas oil prices EIA short term energy forecase custom data table builder EIA – Nov 2015 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/query/ 14/2/2016
Brent crude oil prices BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP – Jun 2016 http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html 21/09/2016
US CPI Consumer Price Index Bureau of Labor Statistics – Sept 2016 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 21/09/2016
UK CPI CPI All Items Index Office for National Statistics – Sept 2016 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23 21/09/2016
how oil and petrol prices breakdown Understanding Pump Prices UKPIA – Mar 2015 http://ukpia.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/ukpia-briefing-paper-understanding-pump-prices-2015.pdf?sfvrsn=0 11/27/2015
UK hydrocarbon excise rate Rates and allowances: Excise Duty – Hydrocarbon oils HMRC – Jan 2014 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowances-excise-duty-hydrocarbon-oils 11/27/2015
UK taxes and the sterling/ dollar exchange rate stopped oil price drops being passed on Petrol and diesel prices House of Commons Library – Jan 2014 https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiC6Kr1wLDJAhWCNxQKHQhoC6AQFghLMAc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parliament.uk%2Fbriefing-papers%2FSN04712.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGutKmrqVk8q_RnG3hDrPaYC1Ifrg&sig2=6g_DEZyiyczOlP1_y0mOfg&bvm=bv.108194040,d.ZWU 11/27/2015
Asda slash petrol prices Asda slash petrol prices to less than £1 per litre itv news – nov 2015 http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-11-27/asda-slash-petrol-prices-to-less-than-1-per-litre/ 11/27/2015
home heating consumes eighteen million barrels of oil DUKES Chapter 3: Petroleum gov.uk – Jul 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447630/DUKES_2015_Chapter_3.pdf 12/4/2015
convert tonnes to barrels converting energy units from tonne of oil equivalent to barrel of oil equivalent Unit Juggler – calculated Dec 2015 https://www.unitjuggler.com/convert-energy-from-toe-to-boe.html?val=2300000 12/4/2015
UK fuel oil and gas oil prices Monthly and annual prices of road fuels and petroleum products gov.uk – Nov 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/oil-and-petroleum-products-monthly-statistics 14/2/2016
Nigerian oil production started in 1958 History of the Nigerian Petroleum Industry Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation – undated http://www.nnpcgroup.com/NNPCBusiness/Businessinformation/OilGasinNigeria/IndustryHistory.aspx 12/17/2015
Provided over 7% of US oil imports U.S. Imports by Country of Origin EIA – database https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm 12/17/2015
Flaring in Nigeria Nigeria loses N174bn to gas flaring — NNPC Vanguard – Jul 2015 http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/07/nigeria-loses-n174bn-to-gas-flaring-nnpc/ 12/17/2015
Halve the people of Nigeria have no access to electricity Not Darkest Africa, but Darkest Nigeria – 120 Million Without Electricity Oilprice – Jun 2013 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Not-Darkest-Africa-but-Darkest-Nigeria-120-Million-Without-Electricity.html 12/21/2015
Nigeria spills – number The Price of Oil – Corporate Responsibility and Human Rights Violations in Nigeria’s Oil Producing Communities Human Rights Watch – 1999 https://www.hrw.org/reports/1999/nigeria/nigeria0199.pdf 12/21/2015
Nigeria spills – clean up UNEP Ogoniland Oil Assessment Reveals Extent of Environmental Contamination and Threats to Human Health UNEP – Aug 2011 http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=2649&ArticleID=8827&l=en#sthash.PSDI9UyJ.dpuf 12/21/2015
More oil spills every year in Nigeria than in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 Nigeria’s agony dwarfs the Gulf oil spill. The US and Europe ignore it The Guardian – May 2010 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-delta-shell 12/17/2015
Shell out of court settlement, took three years to improve on initial offer of £4,000 Shell announces £55m payout for Nigeria oil spills The Guardian – Jan 2015 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/07/shell-announces-55m-payout-for-nigeria-oil-spills?CMP=share_btn_tw 12/21/2015
BP Court ordered settlement BP Maintains Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Cost at $43 Billion Bloomberg News – Oct 2014 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-28/bp-maintains-gulf-of-mexico-oil-spill-cost-at-43-billion 12/17/2015
Nigeria’s exports fell Nigeria’s 35m barrels of crude oil remain unsold The Guardian – Jan 2015 http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/2015/01/nigeria-s-35m-barrels-of-crude-oil-remain-unsold/ 12/21/2015
Nigeria tried to sell into asian markets Nigeria Struggles to Sell Oil Cargoes, Offers Discounts to Asian Buyers This Day Live – Dec 2014 http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/nigeria-struggles-to-sell-oil-cargoes-offers-discounts-to-asian-buyers/198070 12/17/2015
Nigeria rebudgeted Nigeria eyes more budget cuts ahead of poll The Financial Times – Feb 2015 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6fd40478-b74c-11e4-981d-00144feab7de.html#axzz3SCYmVI3f 12/21/2015
Nigeria debt increased 2015 Budget: Nigeria’s Borrowing Continues Ventures Africa – Jan 2015 http://www.ventures-africa.com/2015/01/2015-budget-nigerias-borrowing-continues/ 12/21/2015
Nigerian borrowing Nigeria borrows money to pay government salaries Aljazera – May 2015 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/05/150506055148505.html 12/17/2015
The Dutch Disease The International Monetary Fund Dutch Disease: Wealth Managed Unwisely – Mar 2012 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/dutch.htm 12/21/2015
World Bank biofuel impacts (Mitchell) A Note on Rising Food Prices Donald Mitchell, published by The World Bank Development Prospects Group, JULY 2008 http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2008/07/28/000020439_20080728103002/Rendered/PDF/WP4682.pdf 12/21/2015
International Food Policy Research Agency Reflections on the Global Food Crisis, How Did It Happen? How Has It Hurt? And How Can We Prevent the Next One? BY Derek Headey and Shenggen Fan, publised by the International Food Policy Institute, 2010 http://www.ifpri.org/publication/reflections-global-food-crisis 12/21/2015